Chelsea have messed up Champions League qualification but Newcastle and Manchester City are looking good. A straight shootout between Villa and Forest it is.
The race to qualify for the Champions League has been filtered down to five contenders for three spots with five games remaining.
Three points separate Nottingham Forest in third from seventh-placed Aston Villa, who enjoy an eight-point gap over Bournemouth.
With the Premier League securing a fifth Champions League spot for 2025/26 it means Forest (60 points), Newcastle (59), Manchester City (58), Chelsea (57) and Villa (57) will fight to join Liverpool and Arsenal in next season’s competition, with the two who miss out likely having to settle for Europa or Conference League fare.
But who should be expecting to win the race? Which side has form in their favour, or a kinder run-in? Who has already automatically added three points to their final total because they have still got to face Southampton? Let’s drill into the numbers to make a definitive prediction, even if we sadly cannot afford a supercomputer.
The remaining fixtures
Nottingham Forest – Brentford h (May 1st), Palace a (5th), Leicester h (11th), West Ham a (18th), Chelsea h (25th)
Newcastle – Ipswich h (26th), Brighton a (May 4th), Chelsea h (10th), Arsenal a (18th), Everton h (25th)
Manchester City – Aston Villa h (22nd), Wolves h (May 2nd), Southampton a (10th), Bournemouth h (18th), Fulham a (25th)
Chelsea – Everton h (26th), Liverpool h (May 4th), Newcastle a (10th), Manchester United h (18th), Nottingham Forest a (25th)
Aston Villa – Manchester City a (22nd), Fulham h (3rd), Bournemouth a (10th), Spurs h (18th), Man Utd a (25th)
Other possible fixtures
Nottingham Forest and Manchester City face each other in an FA Cup semi-final on April 27. The winner will contest the FA Cup final on May 17.
Aston Villa play Crystal Palace in an FA Cup semi-final on April 26.
Chelsea play Djurgarden in the Europa Conference League semi-final on May 1 and 8, with a potential final on May 28.
Which Champions League contender has the kindest run-in?
Based on the average current position of every team’s remaining opponents, some will be far happier with their schedule than others:
1) Nottingham Forest – 13.00
2) Manchester City – 11.80
3) Aston Villa – 10.40
4) Newcastle – 9.80
5) Chelsea – 7.00
It is not difficult to see why many Chelsea supporters felt their hopes realistically ended with the draws against Brentford and Ipswich, even if they rallied back from the brink of exiting the race completely to beat Fulham.
The Blues face three of the top five, as well as games against Manchester United and Everton.
Chelsea are the only top-half team left on the Forest calendar, while Newcastle and Aston Villa have fairly tough assignments remaining, including a couple of games each against fellow Champions League qualification contenders.
Manchester City are looking good.
Which Champions League contender has done best against their remaining opponents?
Far more instructive might be to consider how the Champions League contenders did in the corresponding fixtures against their remaining opponents. This is a table based on those results so far this season:
1) Nottingham Forest vBrentford, Crystal Palace, Leicester, West Ham and Chelsea – P5 W4 D1 L0 F10 A2 Pts 13 PPG 2.6
2) Manchester City v Aston Villa, Wolves, Southampton, Bournemouth and Fulham – P5 W3 D0 L2 F8 A7 Pts 9 PPG 1.8
3) Aston Villa v Manchester City, Fulham, Bournemouth, Spurs and Man Utd – P5 W2 D2 L1 F7 A7 Pts 8 PPG 1.6
4) Newcastle v Ipswich, Brighton, Chelsea, Arsenal and Everton – P5 W2 D1 L2 F16 A3 Pts 7 PPG 1.4
5) Chelsea v Everton, Liverpool, Newcastle, Manchester United and Nottingham Forest – P5 W1 D3 L1 F5 A5 Pts 6 PPG 1.2
Forest’s record in those games would see them through comfortably; the only points they have dropped this campaign against their final opponents were in a draw with Chelsea in October.
The Blues’ hopes are again crushed by another metric, with their only win against the five teams they have left to play coming at home to a very different Newcastle side in October.
The Magpies, Manchester City and Villa all have relatively similar numbers.
Which Champions League contender is in the best form?
But neither Newcastle nor Villa will approach those run-ins with trepidation as their form is among the best in the entire Premier League, never mind this particular race.
Christ, Wolves.
Forest might have been fearing the worst after suffering back-to-back defeats but a trip to see Dr. Tottenham sorted them out. Neither Manchester City nor Chelsea have shown the level of consistency needed to actually punish any slips.
Which Champions League contender could maximise six-pointers?
There are three games left between the five Champions League contenders: Manchester City v Aston Villa on April 22; Newcastle v Chelsea on May 19; and Nottingham Forest v Chelsea on May 25.
A mini table of Premier League results between those sides suggests two teams might be less equipped to make the most of those meetings than the other three:
1) Manchester City – P7 W4 D1 L2 F14 A5 Pts 13 PPG 1.86
2) Aston Villa – P7 W4 D0 L3 F11 A12 Pts 12 PPG 1.71
3) Newcastle – P7 W3 D1 L3 F13 A15 Pts 10 PPG 1.43
4) Chelsea – P6 W2 D1 L3 F8 A9 Pts 7 PPG 1.17
5) Nottingham Forest – P7 W2 D1 L4 F9 A14 Pts 7 PPG 1
Chelsea really might be out of it, and Forest might need to raise their game against them on the final day.
Which Champions League contenders still have to face any of the bottom three?
There are no easy games in the Premier League but also Ipswich, Leicester and Southampton are quite considerably worse than everyone else so any fixture list which still contains them can only be considered an advantage.
In games against Nottingham Forest, Newcastle, Manchester City, Chelsea and Aston Villa, the bottom three have a combined record of P27 W1 D3 L23 F18 A67. Ipswich account for all those non-defeats, drawing twice with Villa while holding and beating Chelsea.
So Newcastle will not make the mistake of believing three points to be guaranteed against the Tractor Boys, but they will be overwhelming favourites at St James’ Park on April 26.
The same can be said for Manchester City at relegated Southampton on May 10 and Nottingham Forest against Leicester a day later.
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Who will qualify for the Champions League?
The outlook is not great for Chelsea. Already with ground to make up on the rest bar Aston Villa, the Blues have the toughest run-in, did worst in the corresponding fixtures against their remaining opponents, are the worst of the contenders on form and do not face any of the bottom three – although their struggles against Ipswich indicate that might not have mattered anyway.
They will also likely have the most games to contend with in other competitions due to their progress in the Conference League.
Manchester City should finish in the top five. Their game against Southampton is a distinct advantage, their remaining fixtures are relatively kind and their form is good. But if Villa beat them at the Etihad on Tuesday night then Unai Emery’s side become the favourites.
It is difficult to look past Newcastle’s form and current position, one point behind Forest with a better goal difference and a game against Ipswich to come.
There might be a straight shootout between former European champions Forest and Villa. The latter are also in excellent form but the former have the best schedule on paper by far, a match with Leicester to come, and that points lead over everyone else.
It could well come down to Villa’s inferior goal difference of +6, which is at least eight goals worse than any other contender. Perhaps Forest v Chelsea on the final day will be something of a decider and Callum Hudson-Odoi can unleash the most muted celebration ever seen after his 90th-minute winner.
Nottingham Forest, Newcastle and Manchester City are your Champions League qualification race winners, unless Villa beat the reigning champions.
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